Prediction Markets LOADING

A prediction market is a marketplace where people trade contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. A contract on an outcome typically settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, so its live price (between 0 and 100) can be read as the market's implied probability of that outcome. Coindaily covers only crypto and macroeconomic events - prices, rates, inflation, regulation - not sports or entertainment.

A reading of 42% means the market is currently pricing a 42% chance of that outcome. Probabilities move continuously as new information arrives and as people trade, and the figures for all outcomes in a single market add up to roughly 100%. They are crowd-sourced forecasts, not guarantees, and they can be wrong.

Generally not through the major offshore venues. Platforms such as Polymarket are not authorised or licensed in Australia and are typically not lawfully available to Australian residents. Depending on structure, event contracts may be regulated as financial products by ASIC, or restricted as gambling under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 - and offering them to Australians can require licences a platform may not hold. Coindaily does not operate or facilitate access to any prediction market and shows these probabilities purely to illustrate how markets price future events. This is general information, not legal or financial advice; seek your own advice and be aware that offshore platforms may offer little consumer protection.

No. Everything here is general, educational information about how event probabilities are priced. It is not financial product advice, not a recommendation to trade or bet, and does not take your objectives or circumstances into account.

Coindaily is a markets data terminal, so we focus on events that actually move crypto and the wider economy - Bitcoin price levels, ETF approvals, central-bank decisions, inflation, recession risk and regulation - plus the geopolitical events (conflicts, sanctions, shipping and oil-supply disruptions) that drive commodity prices and risk appetite. We deliberately exclude sports, entertainment and novelty markets. Use the category tabs to focus on Crypto, Macro or Geopolitics.

They share mechanics with betting, but they are also studied as forecasting tools: by pooling many participants' money and information, the resulting price can be a useful real-time estimate of how likely an event is. Whether a particular market is treated as a financial product or as gambling depends on its structure and the jurisdiction - which is exactly why the regulatory position in Australia is cautious.

The probabilities and volumes are pulled live from Polymarket's public data API and filtered to crypto and macro events only. These are real, live figures - if the feed is briefly unavailable the page will say so rather than substitute estimated numbers. Polymarket is an independent third party; Coindaily is not affiliated with it, and all figures are indicative and may be delayed or inaccurate. The "View on Polymarket" links are provided for source attribution, not as an invitation to trade.